Government survey data hints that the U.S. immigrant population may have fallen by roughly 2 million people in the first half of this year — a drop some link to President Donald Trump’s
aggressive immigration policies.
Figures from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which interviews about 60,000 households, show an estimated 2.2 million fewer foreign-born residents. Steven Camarota of the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies called it the largest annual drop in three decades, suggesting either a major demographic shift or a big change in survey response rates.
However, demographers warn that the CPS is less reliable than the larger American Community Survey, which gathers data from about 2 million households. The smaller sample size means the CPS can exaggerate changes, and it could take years to confirm the true trend.
Jed Kolko of the nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics noted there’s no other current data confirming such a steep drop, calling an annualized rate of 4 million “extraordinary” and far above most estimates.
Some experts believe fear may be skewing results. Julia Gelatt of the Migration Policy Institute said the Trump administration’s deportation campaigns and harsh rhetoric could make immigrants hesitant to reveal their status to surveyors, leading to undercounts.
The potential decline comes after a post-pandemic surge in migration fueled the fastest U.S. population growth in over 20 years. Between April 2020 and June 2024, more than 7 million people immigrated to the U.S., according to Census Bureau estimates.
Since taking office again in 2025, Trump has pushed to reverse that growth, pledging to deport 1 million immigrants this year. His administration has hired thousands of deportation agents, used military aircraft for removals, and restricted bond rights for detainees.
So far, ICE has reported about 246,000 removals in the current fiscal year — far below Trump’s target. Still, some immigrants have left voluntarily. If the CPS numbers are accurate, it would mark a rare and dramatic population drop.
“The trend has been down, down, down — which we normally never see,” said Camarota. Photo by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Department of Homeland Security), Wikimedia commons.
