Just over a week after NATO jets shot down Russian drones over Poland, tensions in Europe flared again. On Friday, three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian
airspace without permission and stayed for 12 minutes, Estonia’s Foreign Ministry reported.
In response, Estonia summoned a Russian diplomat to lodge a protest. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called the incident “unprecedentedly brazen,” noting that while Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times this year, this was on another level.
Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said the government would start consulting NATO allies under Article 4, which triggers discussions whenever a member’s security or sovereignty is threatened. NATO’s main decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, is set to meet early next week to review the situation.
US President Donald Trump told reporters he had been briefed and wasn’t pleased. “I don’t love it,” he said. “I don’t like when that happens. It could be big trouble, but I’ll let you know later.” Russian officials had not responded at the time.
European leaders on edge
Russia’s earlier violations of Polish airspace marked the most serious incidents involving a NATO country since the Ukraine war began in February 2022. Similar breaches and drone crashes have rattled European governments, particularly as diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine conflict have stalled.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the Estonian incursion “an extremely dangerous provocation” and warned that showing weakness could invite even more Russian aggression. Estonia, along with neighboring Baltic states and Poland, remains firmly supportive of Ukraine.
How it happened
The Russian MiG-31 jets crossed over near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland. They had no flight plans, their transponders were off, and they weren’t communicating with Estonian air traffic services. Italian F-35 fighter jets, deployed in the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, scrambled to respond.
Estonian military spokesperson Major Taavi Karotamm told the Associated Press that the jets flew parallel to the border from east to west and didn’t head toward Tallinn. He speculated the incursion might have been intended to force NATO to focus on defending itself rather than supporting Ukraine.
Tsahkna emphasized that Russia’s increasing aggressiveness should be met with “swift political and economic pressure.”
Wider context
Earlier Friday, Britain’s MI6 chief Richard Moore said there’s “absolutely no evidence” that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants peace in Ukraine. Moore described Putin as trying to impose his will at all costs, underestimating Ukraine, and risking his country’s future for personal legacy and distorted history.
Trump, visiting the UK, also criticized Putin, saying he “has really let me down” in peace efforts. Analysts continue to warn that Putin may be betting on wearing down Ukraine and outlasting the commitment of its Western allies, though many see this strategy as increasingly risky. Photo by Dmitriy Pichugin, Wikimedia commons.
