The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday as traders braced for a busy week of economic and geopolitical events — from Tuesday’s release of July U.S. inflation figures to a looming U.S.–China tariff
deadline and a Russia–U.S. summit on Friday.
The dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.073, extending last week’s 0.4% decline. Against the yen, the greenback slipped 0.20% to 147.46, with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day holiday.
“If I’d be playing it any way, I’d be long volatility this week,” said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland, citing the unpredictability of the coming days.
Crypto Surges on U.S. Policy Shift
Bitcoin jumped 3% to $121,909.06, close to its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after President Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrency holdings in U.S. retirement accounts. Ether rose 2.1% to $4,307.25, having earlier touched its highest level since December 2021.
Trade Talks Near Deadline
Markets are watching closely as Trump’s August 12 deadline for a U.S.–China trade deal approaches, particularly over semiconductor policy. Analysts expect another 90-day tariff truce.
A U.S. official told Reuters that Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate 15% of their China sales revenue to the U.S. government in exchange for semiconductor export licenses.
“If this is Trump says 15% and we’ll call it a day, that may not be too bad,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne.
The move comes after Chinese state-linked media warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips could pose security risks for China.
Currency Moves
The offshore yuan traded at 7.184 per dollar after weekend data showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were flat.
Australian dollar: $0.6526 (steady), ahead of an expected 25-basis-point rate cut on Tuesday
New Zealand dollar: $0.59545 (unchanged)
British pound: $1.3465 (+0.1%)
U.S. Policy and Personnel Shifts
In an interview with Japan’s Nikkei, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the next Federal Reserve chair should be someone capable of “examining the whole organisation,” warning that the Fed’s expanded scope could threaten its independence.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is considering E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, for the role of Bureau of Labor Statistics chief. Photo by Milad Mosapoor, Wikimedia commons.
