US Job Growth Was Overestimated by Nearly a Million, New Data Shows

 

The US added 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the year leading up to March, according to new figures released Tuesday by the Labor Department.

The revision — part of the agency’s annual payroll data update — suggests the job market wasn’t quite as strong as it had first appeared during the final stretch of the Biden administration and the early months of the Trump administration.

Economists had expected a downward adjustment, but the size of the gap is sparking fresh concerns about the health of the economy. The Federal Reserve is watching these signs of weakness closely as it heads into a key meeting next week, where it’s widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time this year.

Recent data has already painted a softer picture of the labor market. Employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, far fewer than anticipated, while unemployment edged up to 4.3%. The new revisions only reinforce the view that hiring is slowing — and that the Fed may need to act quickly.

The political backdrop adds another layer of tension. Just weeks ago, President Trump ousted the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing her of manipulating job numbers to damage his reputation — claims made without evidence.

Analysts point to Trump’s own tariff and immigration policies as factors weighing on growth, though the revised figures also highlight weaker job creation under Biden. That dynamic is giving the Trump administration ammunition. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared, “President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken,” while again urging Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slash rates immediately.

Wall Street, however, seemed unfazed. The S\&P 500 opened steady on Tuesday, though investors remain cautious ahead of fresh inflation data due Thursday. A mix of slower growth and higher prices — so-called stagflation— is a growing concern.

The downward revisions hit hardest in the services sector, including leisure and hospitality, which had been among the strongest areas for job growth. That’s a troubling sign, according to Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics: “With services being the last bastion of employment growth, this does not bode well for the overall health of the labor market.” Photo by Amtec Photos, Wikimedia commons.

 

 


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